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Deaths from all causes doubled in Lima, Peru, and tripled in Manaus, Brazil. In Guayaquil, Ecuador, deaths reached five times the usual number for the time of year.
Different Coronavirus Models Are Starting To Agree. The Picture’s Not Good – NPR
More than 82,000 people in the U.S. have died of COVID-19 as of Tuesday. How many more lives will be lost? Scientists have built dozens of computational models to answer that question. But the profusion of forecasts poses a challenge: The models use such a wide range of methodologies, formats, and time frames, it’s hard to get even a ballpark sense of what the future has in store.
One Step Closer To Understanding The Origin Of SARS-CoV-2 – Forbes
The virus resembled that which caused the original SARS epidemic (now called SARS-CoV-1) in 2002-2003. Both were members of the same family, beta-coronaviruses. Both had close, but different, relatives in bats from southern China. Both attach to human and animal cells via the same receptor, the ACE2 protein.
Fauci Warns States Not To ‘Jump Over’ Guidelines To Reopening – NPR
Speaking remotely during a unique Senate health committee hearing, Fauci told lawmakers that his concern is that if some areas “jump over” guidelines from the federal government and “prematurely open up,” there will be “little spikes that turn into outbreaks.” His statements follow an email he sent to The New York Times on Monday in which he wrote, in part: “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines to ‘Open America Again,’ then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country. This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.”
COVID-19 May Be Much More Contagious Than We Thought – Harvard Magazine
One of the basic indicators for determining the possible course of the coronavirus pandemic is how many other people an infected individual will infect. In epidemiological science, this factor is called the basic reproduction number, or R nought (R0). An R0 of 1 means that, absent interventions in a population without immunity, each infected individual will infect another. Alarmingly, during the past several weeks, epidemiologists have been discussing the possibility that the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), originally thought to be in the 2 to 3 range, may be closer to 5 or 6.
How COVID-19 kills – Eureka Alert
COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus SARS-Cov-2, has infected over 4 million people in 212 countries, of whom at least 272,000 have died. The ongoing economic and social impact of the pandemic is staggering, but despite a daily flood of news on the disease, few laypeople know that paradoxically, COVID-19 mostly kills through an overreaction of the immune system, whose function is precisely to fight infections. [Related Paper]
Smoking Nearly Doubles the Rate of COVID-19 Progression – UCSF
In a meta-analysis of studies that included 11,590 COVID patients, researchers found that among people with the virus, the risk of disease progression in those who currently smoke or previously smoked was nearly double that of non-smokers. [Related Paper]
SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 disease, uses a receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to gain entry into human cells. A new study published in the European Heart Journal, shows that men have higher concentrations of ACE2 in their blood plasma than women; this could explain why men might be more susceptible to infection with, or the consequences of, SARS-CoV-2. [Related Paper]
Lessons from COVID-19 modeling: the interplay of data, models and behaviour – World Economic Forum
In the history of humanity, perhaps no data models have been more recognizable than COVID-19’s infection and death curves. Virtually everyone, from the farmer in India to the director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US, is now familiar with them.
Official Reporting for May 13, 2020
| WHO SITREP #113 | ECDC | Johns Hopkins | |
| Confirmed Cases | 4,088,848 | 4,223,047 | 4,308,055 |
| Deaths | 283,153 | 291,519 | 294,155 |
Total deaths: 80,820
Surveillance Headlines
USA
California: Settles in for the Coronavirus Long Haul – New York Magazine
Boston, Massachusetts: Massachusetts Hospitals Report Rare Cases of Coronavirus-Related Illness in Children – Local News
Washington (State): Choir COVID-19 outbreak called ‘superspreader event’ in report – Local News
New York: Governor Cuomo Directs Hospitals to Prioritize COVID-19 Testing for Children – NY.GOV
LATIN AMERICA
The devastation in Latin America is less visible, but compares to the worst in Europe or the U.S. – NYT
Brazil: Brazil records highest daily rise in deaths – BBC
EUROPE
Russia: Putin Spokesman Is Hospitalized With COVID-19 As Coronavirus Cases Spike In Russia – NPR
Germany: Not alarmed by infection rate rise – BBC
ASIA
South Korea: Delays Reopening Schools As Coronavirus Cases Resurge – NPR
Science and Tech
Some people die from covid-19, and others who are infected don’t even show symptoms. But scientists still don’t know why. Now consumer genomics company 23andMe is going to offer free genetic tests to 10,000 people who’ve been hospitalized with the disease, hoping to turn up genetic factors that could point to an answer. While it’s known that older people and those with health conditions such as diabetes are most at risk, there could be hidden genetic reasons why some young, previously healthy people are also dying.
AntiVirals
Gilead signed nonexclusive licensing agreements with five generic drug makers operating in India and Pakistan to produce COVID-19 therapy remdesivir for 127 countries.
Vaccine
Fauci: COVID-19 vaccine, treatment by autumn ‘a bridge too far’ – CIDRAP
According to Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, it’s a bridge too far to consider that medical therapeutics and an efficacious vaccine could be at play in the United States at the end of August.
The challenges of developing a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine – Science Direct
The goal of a vaccine is to trigger a response that safely protects against an infection and/or the burden of disease. While this is true for all vaccines, the steps leading to a safe and effective product can be different for each infection. In the case of COVID-19, caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, researchers at Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital have found that vaccine design can face specific challenges and that vaccine development approaches require an understanding of how the immune system naturally responds to a specific infection as well as how vaccines might trigger specific protective responses. [Related Paper]
Diagnostics
Using a smartphone to diagnose COVID-19 at home – Eureka Alert
Using the existing hardware and computing power of commodity smartphones, this project aims to perform non-invasive at-home testing for COVID-19 infection, and it was selected for funding by the National Science Foundation through its RAPID award program in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Post Pandemic Life
Workforce Strategies for Post-COVID-19 Recovery – Harvard Business Review
The biggest challenge organizations will likely face in recovery is the tension between getting back to work and rethinking work as they embrace a new reality. How leaders and organizations handle the recovery may define their brands for years to come, and ultimately whether they are truly operating as a social enterprise.
Infection Prevention
Out of the potential viral transmission pathways in the recreational waters considered (swimming pools, beaches, rivers, etc.), the main ones would be via respiratory secretions through coughing and sneezing, or when people interact with each other in close proximity (person-to-person contact). [Related Study in Spanish]
Published Research
Spillover of SARS-CoV-2 into novel wild hosts in North America: A conceptual model for perpetuation of the pathogen – Science of the Total Environment
SARS-CoV-2, a novel virus with an unusual cardiac feature: inverted takotsubo syndrome – European Heart Journal
Pregnant vs nonpregnant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and coronavirus disease 2019 hospital admissions: The first 4 weeks in New York – American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology
Recruitability and effect of PEEP in SARS-Cov-2-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome – Annals of Intensive Care
Implications of gastrointestinal manifestations of COVID-19 – The Lancet
TMPRSS2 and TMPRSS4 promote SARS-CoV-2 infection of human small intestinal enterocytes – Science Magazine
Severe COVID-19: A Review of Recent Progress With a Look Toward the Future – Frontiers in Public Health
COVID-19 vaccine design: the Janus face of immune enhancement – Nature
Pre-Pub (not yet peer reviewed, should not be regarded as conclusive)
A Case Series of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Three Febrile Infants in New York – Journal of Pediatrics
Nasopharyngeal Microbiota Profiling of SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients – Research Square
Coping in Quarantine
Although some states are already lifting restrictions, infectious-disease experts warn that combating the virus will be a marathon, not a sprint. The respiratory disease poses a threat to all Americans, not just seniors, and there are signs the virus is killing far more men than women.
If you are craving a timeout from COVID19 news, and need to de-stress… there is a Joy of Painting YouTube Channel. Bob’s soothing voice will help to take the edge off.
There is also an interesting Biography of Bob Ross on Youtube.