Tulane Outbreak Daily – July 16, 2020

Featured Headlines

Over 224,000 COVID-19 deaths forecast in U.S. by November 1, says University of Washington’s IHME – Retuers

A newly revised University of Washington model projects the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 will climb to just above 224,000 by Nov. 1, up 16,000 from a prior forecast, due to rising infections and hospitalizations in many states.

Youth sports a driver of COVID-19 infections in St. Louis area – STL Today

Youth sports programs have come under fire for a rise in coronavirus cases. Since late June, there have been new cases of COVID-19 reported daily in children and teens ages 10 to 19. The rising cases have coincided with the start of summer sports programs, and contact tracers have noted a link to participation in those activities.

Model suggests U.S. opened up too early as COVID-19 ran wild – MedicalNews.net

A new modeling framework designed to track the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in the U.S. suggests that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic was not under control by the end of May – just before containment measures were relaxed. [Related pre-print study]

Introductions and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the New York City area – Science Magazine

Deaths caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New York City (NYC) during the spring of 2020 have vastly exceeded those reported in China and many other countries. What were the early events that led to such a severe outbreak? Gonzalez-Reiche et al. sampled some of the early patients seeking assistance in February and March of 2020 at the Mount Sinai Health System. Phylogenetic analysis of virus sequences in these people, who were drawn from across NYC, showed that the virus had been independently introduced many times from Europe and elsewhere in the United States. Subsequent clusters of community transmission occurred. The focus of infection in NYC is a marker of the role this city plays as a two-way hub for human movement.

A Second Coronavirus Death Surge Is Coming – The Atlantic

There is no mystery in the number of Americans dying from COVID-19. Despite political leaders trivializing the pandemic, deaths are rising again: The seven-day average for deaths per day has now jumped by more than 200 since July 6, according to data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. By our count, states reported 855 deaths today, in line with the recent elevated numbers in mid-July.

Clinical Considerations

COVID-19 May Manifest in the Mouth in Some Patients – MedPageToday

You can add enanthem, or a rash inside the body, such as in the mouth, to the ever-lengthening list of symptoms with which COVID-19 patients can present, researchers in Spain suggested. [Related letter JAMA]

An Arizona man in a coma from coronavirus woke up paralyzed – CNN

For Eddie Case, recovering from Covid-19 comes with hard work and uncertainty. The virus sent him into a medically induced coma, he told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Wednesday. And when he woke up, he was paralyzed. “I really thought I had been involved in an accident or some sort of mishap,” Case said. He has since had to learn how to stand and how to write.

COVID-19: Patients improve after immune-suppressant treatment – Science Daily

Most patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (coronavirus) pneumonia experienced improvement after receiving an FDA-approved drug normally given for rheumatoid arthritis, according to an observational study. Outcomes for patients who received the drug, tocilizumab, included reduced inflammation, oxygen requirements, blood pressure support and risk of death, compared with published reports of illness and death associated with severely ill COVID-19 patients.

Official Reporting for July 16, 2020

World Health Organization


Confirmed Cases: 13,378,853

Deaths: 580,045


Confirmed Cases: 13,530,628

Deaths: 583,892

Johns Hopkins

Confirmed Cases: 13,654,445

Deaths: 586,174

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Total cases: 3,483,832
Total deaths: 136,938

Surveillance Headlines


Oregon: Oregon Passes 13,000 Coronavirus Cases – OPB

Alabama: Alabama already saw more coronavirus cases in July than any other month – AL

California: Tesla has more than 130 employees who tested positive for coronavirus – Mercury News

California: California Breaks a Record: 10,000 New Cases in a Day – New York Times

Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt is the first governor to test positive for the coronavirus – Washington Post


Pemex says 232 workers have died of COVID-19 – Border Report


Sweden: Swedish PM Defends Covid Plan as Immunity Fails to Catch On – Bloomberg


Melbourne: Melbourne, On COVID-19 Lockdown, Reports Record Case Count – NPR


India: India Sets Record For Its Daily Coronavirus Count – NPR

Indonesia: Indonesia Stumbles As Coronavirus Cases Surge – NPR

Hong Kong: Sees Record 63 Local Virus Cases in Swelling Wave – Bloomberg

Science and Tech


How Pooled Testing for Coronavirus Could Help Test More People in Less Time – Time

s pandemic re-opening efforts show mixed success, across the U.S., there have been reports of long lines for COVID-19 testing, and shortages in some places. One solution could be pooled testing, a strategy that’s already been used in China, Germany, Israel and South Africa to test a large number of people in a short amount of time.


FDA approved drugs with pharmacotherapeutic potential for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) therapy – Science Direct

The results of clinical trials point to the potential clinical efficacy of antivirals, especially remdesivir (GS-5734), lopinavir/ritonavir, and favipiravir. Other therapeutic options that are being explored involve meplazumab, tocilizumab, and interferon type 1.


COVID-19 vaccine: Early Oxford trial data to be published next week – NBC News

Early-stage human trial data on a vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University will be published on July 20, The Lancet medical journal said on Wednesday.

In Coronavirus Vaccine Race, China Strays From the Official Paths – New York Times

Beijing is offering several vaccine candidates to employees of state-owned companies and the armed forces, while also conducting clinical trials in other countries.

University Of Maryland School Of Medicine COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Will Advance To Phase 3 – Baltimore CBS

Researchers have been watching how the human body reacts to a vaccine which was designed to beat COVID-19. According to doctors, the preliminary results appear to show that the vaccine did it’s job at boosting antibodies.

Positive news’ on AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine is imminent: report – Fierce Biotech

straZeneca and the University of Oxford are set to share “positive news” on their COVID-19 vaccine soon, according to a leading U.K. journalist. The update, which could come as soon as tomorrow, may shed light on how the front-runner vaccine fared in early clinical trials. AZD1222, an recombinant adenovirus vaccine candidate that originated in Oxford, moved into phase 2/3 in May on the strength of data from a 1,000-subject phase 1 trial. However, the researchers are yet to share clinical data from the phase 1, leaving observers to argue over the results of a study conducted in monkeys to determine whether the vaccine is likely to work.


Published Research

Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 – NEJM

Covid-19 and Disparities in Nutrition and Obesity – NEJM

Pre-Pub (not yet peer reviewed, should not be regarded as conclusive)

None Today

Coping in Quarantine

Vacation in the Summer of Covid-19 – New York Times

Traveling during a pandemic requires lots of research, precision planning and a willingness to play by new and very stringent rules. For these writers, it still felt good to get away.

Bartering is back: When life gives you lemons, trade them for a neighbor’s hand sanitizer – Washington Post

Tammy Calhoun traded a loaf of freshly baked bread and a few homegrown avocados for a neighbor’s help planting a vegetable garden in her front yard last month — a great deal she never would have come across before the novel coronavirus pandemic.

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